WHY NASA MAY NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IN 2017 POLLS

Nasa Leaders,From Left Mudavadi,Kalonzo and Raila in a Past Function

Despite a lot of media publicity on NASA, given the fact that Kenya’s voting pattern tends to follow ethnic pattern, the Opposition coalition may not make a significant impact during the much anticipated 2017 General Election. The only difference between CORD, which competed with Jubilee in 2013 General Election and lost and yet to be formed NASA is the entry of ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi. You will recall that during the 2013 Presidential Election Mudavadi was a presidential candidate who came distant third by polling 483,981 votes this being 3.91% of the valid national votes cast. Assuming that all other factors remain constant, Mudavadi will only improve CORD’s percentage score (and more so in western Kenya) from 43.70% (which CORD candidate Raila Odinga polled) to 47.66%. Since 2013, there is no indicator that the Opposition is making any significant inroads in Jubilee strongholds particularly in Mt. Kenya and Kalenjin Rift Valley regions. Tyranny of numbers may still favour Jubilee come 2017 since when the IEBC conducted the first phase of voter registration which ended in February this year, some Jubilee strongholds such as Kiambu and Nakuru recorded huge additional voters as Kiambu improved from 861,828 to 950,641 while Nakuru county voters increased from 695,319 to 766,841 voters. This means both Nakuru and Kiambu have a combined total voters of 1,717,482 which is more than the 4 counties of former Western Province (with a total of 1,606,377 votes); a key CORD/NASA stronghold. So though NASA may be given a lot publicity what counts in an election is the numbers and in that regard, NASA may be an empty shell.